VIDU AT LEISURE

1.vidu at pagoda, 2. sant kabir, 3. at jaduguda with indorians, 4.

TIFR FOUNDATION DAY LECTURE - 01/06/2010

FRONTIERS OF SCIENCE

"Basic research is vital
for enhancing national and
international competitiveness"

I am very happy to participate in the 2nd TIFR Foundation Day Lecture at Mumbai.TIFR is born out of a unique thinking from a great visionary Homi Jehangir Bhabha. To think of TATA Institute of Fundamental Research in 1940s is indeed, in British India a break through in thinking and action. My deep respect and reverence to Homi Bhabha. Let

me recall the words of Homi Bhabha the founder of TIFR on the inauguration in 1945, "The pursuit of science and its practical application are no longer subsidiary social activities today. Science forms the basis of our whole social structure without which life as we know it, would be inconceivable".This statement is as much true today, as humanity is trying to find solutions for many challenges for development. Friends, when I am with all of you today I would like to talk on the topic "Frontiers of Science".

The role of scientists in Indian independence movement Friends, I was reading the biography of the great astrophysicist and the Nobel laureate Prof. S.Chandrasekhar, written by Shri Kameshwar Wali. While I am in the midst of young scientific community, I would like to quote from the book: "Chandra: I mean it is a remarkable thing that in the modern era before 1910, there were no (Indian) scientists of

international reputation or standing. Between 1920 and 1925, we had suddenly many internationally well known men like J.C.Bose, C.V Raman, Meghnad Saha, Srinivasa Ramanujam, and Chandrashekher Subhramaniam.” Chandra continued, "I myself have associated this remarkable phenomenon with the need for self-expression, which became a dominant motive among the young during the national movement. It was a part of the national movement to assert oneself. India was a subject country, but in the sciences, in the arts, particularly in science, we could show the West in their own realm that we were equal to them."
Friends, the reason I am quoting these lines is because, I would like to convey the role which science and scientists from India have played in the independence movement. Their work which was at-par and excelled the contemporary international work gave India respect and recognition in the international arena. Scientists gave their excellence for the independence movement of India.

Similar were the thoughts of great physicist Dr JC Bose.

When you see the scientific museum in Calcutta, where some of his inventions are displayed, one can note that he was

much ahead in the world in the field of microwave related research. Similarly, Dr SN Bose's scientific work on atomic physics was admired by Albert Einstein who translated Bose's work in German. SN Bose is famous for his work on Bose-Einstein statistics and the theory of the Bose-Einstein condensate. Dear young friends, today many decades after these pioneering work by Indian scientists, the new challenge before us is how science and scientists can play a vital role in making the nation economically developed in another decade. I call this economic transformation, as the second independence movement for the nation.

Basic research leads to competitive and prosperous India When I was studying the Global innovation report for the

year 2009, I found that as per Global Innovation Index, South Korea is ranked 1; USA 2; Japan-3; Sweden-4; and India 15. There is a relationship between innovation index and competitiveness. Even though India is 15 in innovation index, our ranking in global competitiveness index is 49 in 2009-10. If India has to graduate from the present ranking in competitiveness index of 49 and become equal to economically developed nations (within the top 10), we should note that India will have to depend on the technologies derived from Indian science originality and improve its innovativeness index to better than 5. The present growth has been achieved by the use of technologies essentially developed elsewhere based on scientific discoveries and patents generated before 10 to 15 years. In all the top branches of basic sciences and technology we are only followers. We are 3rd or 4th country to achieve a particular breakthrough. I call this as having a 3rd or 4th syndrome. Now are our mission is to overcome this syndrome and be the pioneer in sciences. Definitely, latest technologies resulting from latest scientific results are not available from developed countries to India at least for a decade. Hence, research is very vital, particularly, basic science which will result in the latest technology required for meeting Global Competitiveness by Indian organizations, institutions and industry. Institutes like TIFR with a rich heritage in research and human resource development in basic sciences and technology research, can contribute extensively in uplifting the country’s status in innovation and competitiveness.

My Visualization for Human Civilization in 2050 Now, I would like to present my visualization of the Human Civilization by the year 2050 for a prosperous and peaceful globe. 1. Every citizen of the civilization will have access to adequate quantity and quality water for consumption, sanitation and irrigation. 2. Agriculture will enable constant renewal and enrichment of the soil 3. There will be an adequate access to energy to all in the world and it will be based on green sources 4. The ICT will transform into a knowledge system powerhouse penetrating and enabling every conceivable field of human endeavor 5. Education will be the tool by which Science and Technology will be delivered to all, leading to the birth of the global knowledge society backed by value system and a spirit of compassion 6. Healthcare will witness an emphasis on preventive healthcare and tailored medical treatments for each individual leading a disease free society with increased longevity 7. Minimum guaranteed quality of life will be ensured to every global citizen 8. The global Green House Gas Equilibrium will be achieved and the risk of Climate change will be eliminated 9. The human habitat will be extended to Earth, Moon and Mars complex. Economy of the world will be of interplanetary nature. 10. Multidisciplinary global leaders will emerge with a vision for sustainable development It is estimated that the population of India by 2050, will be one-fifth of the global population. Hence, our role in the achievement of these visions for the human civilization would become pace setter for the others to follow. Let me now give a national perspective towards realizing these visions through the application of science and technology.

Water: Adequate Quantity of Quality Water for All We need to cater to more than 1.6 billion people by the year 2050 with a target of 25 Kilo-liters of water annually for each citizen. Also, we have to provide adequate water for producing more than 400 million tonnes of quality food grains every year by 2050. This has to be achieved through both, demand and supply side management. Also, we need to ensure that the country and the world is free from the effects of droughts and floods and the agriculture is independent of the vagaries of the monsoon. India gets approximately 4000 Billion cubic meters (BCM) of water every year from all natural sources. Out of this 700 BCM are lost in evaporation and another 700 are lost during the flow on ground. Also, the large part of water namely 1500 BCM flows into the sea due to floods. Thus, the remaining available water is only 1100 BCM. Out of this ground water recharge accounts for 430 BCM per year and the present utilized surface water is 370 BCM. The balance unutilized water which can be harnessed is 300 BCM. The scientific community may evolve a scheme by which we can harness the 300 BCM of unutilized water and 1500 BCM of flood water which flows into the sea. Science should also find recycling methods for domestic and industrial waste water and desalination of sea water using solar energy. Recently, during my visit to the state of Kentucky in USA, I came across such a extensive water management system conducted across the Mississippi river and its tributaries like Ohio river all across the United States. Using a network of Levees, locks, dams and reservoirs, under the US Army Engineer Corps, the management of water has led to flood control, creation of smart waterways and recreational parks all adding to economic welfare. Let me now discuss the scope, opportunity and challenges in green energy. Access to Green Energy for All As you are aware, we are faced with continuous depletion of fossil-material-derived, oil, gas and coal reserves as predicted by World Energy Forum. Also, the use of fossil materials for energy leads to continuous degradation of environment. The solution to these problems can be found through energy independence. Energy Independence in India - A Perspective: India has 17% of the world’s population, but only about 1% of the world’s known oil and natural gas resources. Based on the progress visualized for the nation during the next two decades, the power generating capacity has to increase to over 800,000 MW by the year 2050 from the current 150,000 MW in India. This takes into consideration energy economies planned and the design and production of energy efficient equipments and systems. Energy independence has got to be achieved through three different sources namely renewable energy (solar, wind and hydro power), electrical power from nuclear energy and bio-fuel for the transportation sector. Energy independence throws very important technological challenges to the world: The solar cell efficiency has to increase from the present 20% to 55% through intensified research on CNT (Carbon Nano Tube) based solar cells. For thorium reactors, as it is known, thorium is a non-fissile material. It has to be converted into a fissile material using Fast Breeder Technology. For the transportation sector, our aim should be to make the overall import crude oil to be zero, and this can be achieved through multi pronged strategies: (1) Work on alternative fuels like bio-diesel and ethanol which will completely replace fossil fuel utilization. It will also have systems to enhance Cetane and Octane number so that there is no need for changes in the engine design (2) Work on emulsification of bio-diesel with water for reducing the green house gases coming in the form of emissions Space Solar Power: We have to focus on either moon based solar power or Space Solar power over the Geo-

Synchronous orbit since it does not need much space with no pollution, and has the potential of 99.9% energy availability. Moreover, the extraterrestrial irradiance is 144% of that of terrestrial irradiance and is also available for 24 hours. Space faring nations across the globe have gained over the years tremendous potential in building spacecraft and launch vehicles, but the cost of access to space is prohibitively high for launching large scale space missions for societal applications like space solar power. For overcoming the above, I have the following suggestions which the scientists may consider: 1. Developing a low cost access to space launch system which will bring down the current orbital cost per kg, in stages, from $20,000 to $2,000 in the first stage and to $200 by 2050, apart from mass production of multiple rocket system. 2. Single Stage to orbit reusable launch vehicle is very vital for large scale missions. In this vehicle, the scientific development has to focus on air collection from the atmosphere and having a reactor to liquefy the oxygen so that the oxidizer need not be carried on board the vehicle thereby reducing the launch weight substantially and increasing the payload ratio to 15% instead of 1.5% presently available. 3. Transmission of Solar power from outer space to earth safely for human habitation and bio-diversity, using microwave or laser in designated areas in oceans and deserts.

ICT transforming into a Knowledge system Powerhouse The strides we have made in ICT are very significant. However the potential that is offered by the requirements of the billion plus population is also enormous, challenging and fulfilling. I am a proponent of "free bandwidth". The e-Governance has to percolate the country in a war footing to improve efficiency of governance, to service the citizens, to maintain transparency, to ensure security of information and above all enable connectivity of the governed and governing. The development communication software has to be multiplied in a mission mode to reach the unreached. The mobile revolution has to be made sustainable by constantly increasing value added services. And again, all these can result in many job creators, as already ICT has demonstrated. We need to graduate to knowledge power house from software power house. Now let me discuss on the strategy of empowerment of the billion people through connectivity. Empowering a Billion through Connectivity: The core of empowerment for prosperity of one billion people is the connectivity and partnership between governmental and multiple institutions in the public and private domains. The fast growing telecom economy and infrastructure have to be the primary contributors towards this. The strength of this partnership for collaborative growth and economic prosperity is facilitated by free flow of knowledge and information in a seamless manner cutting across levels and boundaries embracing all walks of life in the three sectors of the economy such as agriculture, manufacturing and services. The communication must be possible from everywhere to anywhere at any time. The inter-connectivity between these three sectors of the economy can be brought about by a societal grid which has a Knowledge Grid, the Rural (Seven thousand PURA) Grid, Health Grid and the Governance Grid. Each grid is a system of multiple portals. This system of grids will bring prosperity to 700 million people in the rural areas and 300 million plus people in the urban areas. In the process, it will aim to uplift the quality of lives of 230 million people out of one billion plus people. The scientists assembled here should forsee emergence of such leap frogging technological growth and facilitate India Industry to play a lead role in this transformation of ICT sector into a Knowledge System Powerhouse. Let me now talk about how by 2050, we need to mitigate the risks posed by the Green House Gas Emissions. Balancing the Greenhouse Gas Budget The earth is both a natural source and a sink for the Greenhouse gases which are delicately balanced. Natural sources of Greenhouse gases are volcanic eruptions, decaying vegetation, releases from oceans and land due to natural processes. These are balanced by natural sinks of Greenhouse Gases like ocean absorption, plants and soil. As on 2007, the Carbon dioxide emission worldwide stood at roughly 30 billion tons or 30 Gigatons annually. Out of this, around half is absorbed in natural sinks of oceans and soil. This means, around 15 Gigatons of additional CO2 is released into the atmosphere. The scientific community has the responsibility to have an overview of the complete problem taking into account all the GHG producing system and the GHG absorbing systems. This should lead to decisions on energy independence using green sources, plantation and afforestation and botanical research to reduce the methane emission and increase the CO2 absorption per unit area by alternation of the pore sizes of the leaf. Let me now talk about the visions realizers in the form of new multi-disciplinary global leaders. Emergence of new Global Leaders focusing on Multi-disciplinary action The world of 2050, will see the emergence of global leaders in all areas, such as political, scientific, industrial, educational, healthcare, legal and agricultural fields, who will engage in multi-disciplinary knowledge based decision making process and foster team spirit breaking the departmental and specialization barriers. Global issues will be solved by mutual consensus and an inclusive growth will be achieved using the best practices in science and technology in a borderless environment. The leadership must have the vision to see additional habitats for humanity to expand. This would mean extending the reach of mankind to other planets. Space technology should enhance further, the quality of life of the people in the planet earth and they need to have a paradigm shift, for evolving earth-moon-mars complex for human prosperity, rather than considering earth, moon and mars as separate entities. I believe, from now onwards we must consider earth-moon-mars complex as strategic and economic entity for the humanity. The scientific community assembled here may like to take up the challenges in realizing all the eight visualizations I have discussed which will definitely provide a great motivation to the young budding scientists to take up science as a career and lifelong mission. Missions for Scientists Let me share with you certain scientific challenges that need integrated solution to enrich the life of the people of our planet particularly our nation. 1. In the energy sector, increasing the solar photovoltaic cell efficiency from the existing 15% to 45% using silicon as a base with Carbon Nano Tube is an important research challenge. 2. India has to go for nuclear power generation in big way using thorium based reactor. 3. Proteomics research is an important area. It would lead to the disease characterization, diagnosis and drug discovery. 4. An integrated vaccine development prevention of HIV/AIDS disease. leading to production in three years time. 5. Stem cell research through three areas such as Adult stem cells, umbilical cord stem cells, and embryonic stem cells on a mission mode for finding cure for many diseases. 6. During my recent visit abroad, I found serious research in Iceland, Ukraine and Russia by young scientists. It is essential India has to work on mission mode research for forecast the earthquake using multiple parameters using precursors such as pre-shock conditions, electromagnetic phenomena prior to final rupture and atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies. 7. Extensive research to ensure a validated prediction system to assess the quantum of rainfall in a particular area for a particular cloud condition within a specified duration. Conclusion: What I will be remembered for? Friends, for me to be here with you today is a beautiful experience. To quote Alfred Tennyson "For men may come and men may go, But I go on forever", this institute will radiate knowledge as ever. When I see every one of you, I am convinced that our nation has tremendous future. Your journey will be a journey of discovery, a journey of courage and above all the journey of nation building. Like the perennial river of knowledge, TIFR will continue to be a reservoir of great visionaries. Friends, when I see you all, I see in you great scientists in Physics, Chemistry, Botany, Computer Sciences, Mathematics, Astronomy, Astrophysics, taking up challenging research work in medicine, engineering, science administration, teaching and scientific leadership. Even there could be blooming Indian astronauts who may walk on the surface of the Moon and Mars. You may also study the geography, geology and climate leading to creation of living conditions of human lives in Mars or Moon. Developing scientific knowledge, you may bring unique solutions to the problems of water, energy, infrastructure, technology access faced by humanity in different parts of the world. Friends, finally I would like to ask you, what would you like to be remembered for? You have to evolve yourself and shape your life. You should write it on a page. That page may be a very important page in the book of human history. And you will be remembered for creating that one page in the history of the nation – whether that page is the page of invention, the page of innovation or the page of discovery or the page of creating societal change or a page of removing the poverty or the page of finding new technologies in energy or astronomy. I will be happy if you could write this page and mail it to me (apj@abdulkalam.com). In this quest, I would like to give certain suggestions: 1. Would you be remembered for evolving better photo voltaic cells which are efficient and minimum losses, thereby making solar energy an economical option for meeting our energy requirements? 2. Would you be remembered in finding a cost effective, safe and efficient solution for transmitting space solar energy into the earth and its effective utilization? 3. Would you be remembered for pioneering the human mission to inhabit the moon and the Mars? 4. Would you be the first to establish qualities the mass of neutrino and its origin? 5. Would you be remembered for bringing free and seamless bandwidth to all, particularly to the 700 million people living in the rural areas and application of ICT as a tool for removing poverty and enhancing the quality of life and delivery of healthcare? 6. Would you be remembered for designing and implementing an education system which will transform every student to be a member of the knowledge society with value added skills or quality knowledge? 7. Would you be remembered for developing special algae species which can be used to extract bio-diesel and bio-petrol, thereby leading to faster realization of energy independence goals? 8. Would you be remembered for facilitating the evolution of leaders who are conscious of sustainable development of the nations and conservation of the ecosystem? 9. Would you be remembered for developing an accurate disaster warning system against earthquakes and other natural disasters which can potentially save millions of lives? 10. Would you be remember first to answer the questions whether we are alone? I am sure, you will definitely be able to evolve a mission which is far reaching in terms of impact and the potential benefit it can bring to humanity and the planet. My greetings and best wishes to all of you success in your scientific missions which will have significant effect on the nation and the world. May God Bless you all. By, Dr. APJ Abdulkalam apj@abdulkalam.com